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Murder in the SunMorgue
by Denis O'Brien, PhD

Who killed hundreds of Syrian children in Ghouta, Aug21|2013? How, and why?

WordPress version

                          


Antinomian Opinion Page


Apr27, 2016

Why Hillary's 5-state blow-out doesn't mean a thing  
And why May 2016 will be the wildest month, politically speaking, since Bobby Kennedy was shot

                                               

           

Somebody is just not getting it.   

Case in point #1:

Amy Davidson, New Yorker, May02|16 issue writes an entire article about "Hillary's problem" and does not once mention Emails, home-brew servers, FIOA felony laws, national security misdemeanor/felony laws, influence peddling laws, or indictments.  Not once.  According to Davidson, Hillary's problem has to do with money itself and not the possibly corrupt ways she obtains money. 

Case in point #2:

M.J. Lee, CNN, Apr27|16 wrote a post-mortem of yesterday's 5-state primaries saying how good things are looking for Hillary.  Not a single word about Emails, home-brew servers, FIOA felony laws, national security misdemeanor and felony laws, influence peddling, or indictments.  Not one.

Case in point #3: 

Nate Silver, Apr26|16 FiveThirtyEight. . .don't even get me going on the nerd-turds.  As I said before, all Nate Silver can hope to do is put his own spin on whatever it is the people who get called by pollsters say to the pollsters.

Silver tells us that prior to yesterday's 5-state primary Clinton needed to nab 40% of the pledged delegates from here to the end.  Yesterday she got 60% of what delegates where up for grabs, which means, statistically, time is getting short for Bernie.  Yada, yada.

But the reality is that Clinton can bag every single delegate that's left and it don't mean squat because this campaign is not over until the fat ladies come home . . . or the cow sings . . . or whatever that saying is.  My point is that the fat lady is Attorney General Loretta Lynch and the singing cow is FBI director James Comey. Neither one of them are super-delegates for the Democratic Party, and yet they are going to determine this nomination because they are law enforcement officers.

I have been through this before (here, here, here), but if I repeat it enough times, it's bound to come true: Hillary will be long gone before the Democratic convention opens.  And if she's not gone, meaning she hasn't been indicted, the Republicans will eviscerate her, Lynch, Comey, and any Democrat within a country mile of her.

The trouble with Silver and the nerd-turds is that they can only crunch numbers. All they can do is tally and twist and re-state what the polls say; they cannot predict the odds of a Clinton legal disaster that has nothing to do with public opinion.  The polls ask "Who ya' gonna' vote for?" not "Will Hillary be indicted?"  And even if they did ask the public whether or not Clinton will get indicted, the data would be worthless. Comey and Lynch are not running for public office and the public's opinion of whether they will indict is no better informed than those who know the system and have insiders feeding them information, like Andrew Napolitano, and Napolitano says the indictment is coming in May.  

In contrast, the best predictions polls and poll-aggregators like Silver or Real Clear Politics are capable of are no better than demotic opinion based on who people say they will vote for, not who will actually be running.  If Clinton is not even in the race on June 1st, then voters telling you today they will vote for her are nothing more than fart-whistles.  Silver doesn't see that.  All he sees is the polls: 

And if Sanders doesn’t reconsider his campaign after Tuesday, there’s not a logical off-ramp for him before California on June 7; instead, the states set to vote in May look reasonably good for him. Clinton is extremely likely to be the Democratic nominee either way, but tonight could determine whether she continues to see Sanders’s shadow for another six weeks.

It amazes me that the likes of Davidson and Silver and Lee can write hundreds or thousands of words speculating on Hillary's brilliant prospects for occupying the Oral Office -- renamed for her husband -- and not hedge their prognostications with the obvious caveat that Hillary may be on bail, not on the ballot, come election day.. 

For the moment I am still calling the general election as John Kasich v. Joe Biden.  However, I'm getting a little bit antsy on the Kasich part, what with the way Trump is hoovering up delegates and inching toward the majority threshold needed to secure a first-vote victory in Cleveland.  But I'm still strong on Biden waltzing in out of the wings, grabbing a post-Hillary nomination, and dancing off to the general election, likely with Yisrael-firster Liz Warren on this arm as the VP candidate. 

As for the Trump.  That's a tougher call and the polls are more relevant because there's no known outstanding legal issues that can upset Trump's apple-cart.  But what is clear is that the Republican machine will take any opportunity it can get to make mincemeat out of Donald Trump, and with good reason.  Regardless of his poll numbers, this prick doesn't have the IQ numbers to beat a sub-standard Neanderthal in a game of checkers much less run the most powerful country in history. And here's an example of why I say it. Davidson's New Yorker article includes this quote from Trump regarding Bernie Sanders continuing to run:

 “In fact, I’d like him to keep going,” Trump said at a rally in Harrisburg. “Because the longer he goes, the more I’m going to like it.”

I'd like him to keep running because the the longer he runs the more I like it -- WTF???  Does that statement provide any evidence of even a scintilla of intelligence?  Yeah, dude, so let's make "Murica great again.

                  


 

 

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