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Mar19|2017
0930 PST

GoY's St. Paddy's Day Attack on Syria 
and Chutzpah Diplomacy 

We are bumping up against the most critical known unknown that determines the short and long-term future of the Middle East: Will Putin go all-in to defend Syria?

 


Yisrael's new F-35s -- one down & one to go?

Things have been going relatively well for Bashir al-Assad since late 2015 when Vladimir Putin stepped in and flipped the bird to the Government of Yisrael (GoY) and the American neocons (collectively, "iJews") who have been trying to bring down the Assad government with a proxy "civil war" reinforced with CIA-armed terrorist groups. But now that Assad's grip on power is strong again and the "civil war" is winding down, the toxic iJews are reverting to the 2-step Plan B --  Step 1: chop up Syria like Daesh chops up American journalists; and Step 2: divide the pieces of the country between Shia, Sunni, and Kurds.  

GoY's primary objective has always been to get a free-fly zone over Syrian territory so that they can get their bombers to Iran intact. GoY doesn't care if they are flying over Sunni or Kurds, as long as they don't have to dodge Assad's SAMs. Unfortunately for GoY, as long as Putin stays in the area and defends Assad, GoY's direct path to attacking Iran is cut off. 

The St. Paddy's Day attack

But that hasn't stopped GoY from probing Syrian air defenses from time to time, which is what happened on St. Paddy's Day when GoY jet fighters attacked Syrian positions near Palmyra. Unexpectedly, after years of ignoring GoY's air-strikes on Syrian territory, Assad finally shot back. There is a dispute over Syria's claim that one of its S-200 SAMs took out a  GoY jet -- GoY's official response to the allegation is that all of its jets and pilots are safe and accounted for. Somebody is obviously lying. The resolution of this factual dispute could be very, very interesting. 

There are a couple of reasons I say it. One is that GoY took delivery of two brand-spanking new F-35's last December and there is a lot of speculation that they have already been used to take out targets in Syria. For instance, on Mar07|17 Le Figaro reported that GoY F-35s took out a Syrian S-300 SAM installation back on Jan13th, just days after delivery. And so if Syria really took out one of GoY's jets last Friday, then maybe one of the two spiffy, super-stealth $1Bn F-35s was shot down by a run-of-the-mill, outdated Syrian S-200 SAM even before the jet's first scheduled oil-change was due or the new-upholstery smell had dissipated. That would be a huge embarrassment to GoY, its pilot, the USG, and Lockheed-Martin -- but as the L-M logo says . . .

The F-35 Lightning: Embarrassment is written into the specifications.

Of course, the iJews' over the top denials that they lost a plane only reinforces speculation that they did. 

Chutzpah diplomacy

The second reason GoY's response to Syria defense of its air-space is so interesting is that it is the first time GoY has actually admitted that they violated Syria's air-space.  Yessir,  GoY's defense minister, Avigdor Liberman, not only admitted a criminal act of war, he says that 1) there will be more of them; 2) GoY will attack Syria whenever it pleases; and 3) if Syria defends itself, GoY will destroy the Syrian air defenses. It's called "chutzpah," which is the iJews' idea of diplomacy, at least as long as they are being backed up by the USG. But such threats of attacking another country at will are, in fact, considered by law to be a type of terrorism, and as such they would appear to me to be grounds for immediate expulsion from the UN. But it gets worse. 

For as long as we're talkin' chutzpah, there's the allegation by GoY intelligence minister Yisrael Katz saying that by finally firing defensive SAMs at GoY jet fighters in Syria's air-space, Syria is trying "to change the rules of the game vis-a-vis Israel" -- the "game" presumably being the one in which GoY attacks any Muslim country it wants to with impunity and then threatens the target country if it tries to defend itself. That's a game that really needs a rule-change. 

Interestingly, Liberman's admission/threat came in the back-draft of blow-hard Bibi Netanyahu's own threat against Russia. Bibi actually  publicly admitted to past attacks on Syria and threatened Russia, all in the same foul breath: “That’s how we’ve acted and how we will continue to act…and everyone needs to take this into account. Everyone.”  

You don't have to read Hebrew to see that by "everyone" Bibi was pointing directly at Putin. And the reason I say it is that the day after the new GoY ambassador to Moscow, Gary Koren, presented his credentials to Putin, Putin called him in for a dressing down over the St. Paddy's Day attack on Syria. Bibi's "everyone" threat was obviously a rejoinder to Putin's criticism of the attack.  

And so, to recapitulate, what we've got here is the iJews sending their jet fighters into Syrian air-space to attack Syrian targets and then threatening Putin if he does anything to intervene in future attacks of a similar nature. Chutzpah.

The known unknown 

Eventually Putin is either going to have to cram Bibi's chutzpah back down his throat or else pack up all those Russian war-toys and piss-off back to Russia.  And that brings us to the single most critical known unknown determining the fate and future of Syria and the entire Middle East: Will Putin defend Syria against GoY's attacks . . . and against the USG? It's complicated, but basically, without Russia and Iran, Syria is burnt bacon, so to speak, and Yisrael owns the entire Levant.

But in order for Russia and Iran to defend Syria and block GoY from controlling the Levant, Russia and Iran must have the backing of China (and, maybe, NoKo). OTOH, in order for China to defend what it sees as it's territorial interests in the South China Sea, China must have the backing of Russia (and, maybe, NoKo).  And so the type of complex, symmetric mutual-dependency between unlikely bed-fellows that seems to precede world wars is in place. All that's needed at this point is for some hot-headed iJew like Netanyahu or some bungling psychopath US president to push their luck one millimeter too far. It's a scary thing when it's the Russians and Chinese who are the paragons of self-restraint in a world occupied by rogue nuclear countries like NoKo and Yisrael. 

But so far, just to be fair here, we have to admit that DTDuck has shown admirable restraint, at least with respect to Syria. But he could do a lot to defuse the situation in both the short and long term by signaling to Bibi that America's view of a peaceful Middle East is a lot more closely aligned with Russia's than with GoY's.  Putin and Bibi working together with determination could resolve most of the problems in the ME by taking Yisrael to the mat and removing their nuclear arms. Wet dream . . . I know. 

The world is beginning to wake up to the reality of the huge problems that were created in 1948 when a gaggle of Jewish terrorists who stormed Palestine were recognized as an actual government. Eventually, one way or another, someone someday is going to have to kick Yisrael's ass. Sending them $3Bn in US taxpayers' money every year and dozens of F-35's is not the way to do that, IMO.  Shooting down those F-35's over Syria would help.        


Wanna' check in on this piece?  denis[at sign]logophere[period]com


 

 

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