Facts Table Post #1
The following new facts have come to light since Post #1 [Please refer to Facts Table for ID # and associated links]
1. V7, the ex-RAF pilot has been identified as Wm. Brett Martin. [V7.1] I think this goes a long way to eliminating the international intrigue theory that Saad was killed by Mossad or other political powers. As an RAF pilot, Martin likely has an over-sized ego and would love to be a media pet in this story, but not even an over-sized ego would drive him to identify himself as a witness and possible future target so long as assassins are suspected. My guess is, this means that Saad was not the main target and the motive was very personal.
2. Martin found the car revved up and the wheels still spinning. [CST-2]
3. The version of him finding Zainab is slightly contradictory. At one point he says she stumbled out into the road. That she appeared to be “larking-about.” Yet he also says he found her badly injured, lying in front of the car. [CST-3]
4. Peter Allen [DM#8] seems to be the first to have reported on Iqbal’s mentally ill brother, Haydar Thaher [al-Saffer?], but the Telegraph [T#2] has been doing the leg-work on this angle. It has found that Haydar Thaher, 46, is a schizo who has been busted numerous times for violent and threatening behavior, including threatening, beating his parents. The mother, Shuaila, was one of the victims of this crime. Thaher was living with the mother in Stockholm and has not been seen by neighbors for a month. This is huge. [P13]
Traffic on the road
I feel it is a waste of time at this point to be chasing facts and speculations that will be resolved when the cops complete their interviews with the 7 yo girl. Why she was out of the car when the car doors were locked. Why the car reversed into the lay-by. How many killers there were. All of these are not facts requiring deduction or speculation — they will be a matter of direct witness testimony.
But one set of circumstances cannot be resolved by the girl or girls: the number and types of vehicles ascending and descending the road and in what order. This is going to require some dissection.
What we know:
1. The al-Hilli’s BMW went up the hill and did not come down.
2. Mollier went up the hill on bike either after the BMW or was passed by the BMW. He also did not come down.
3. Martin, on bike, was passed at some point by Mollier, on bike, but not by the BMW. Martin went up the hill, saw the carnage, helped Zainab, and came down at least partially before, perhaps going back. Martin saw green 4×4 and motorcycle speeding towards the scene. [CST-2]. Presumably, this means the 4×4 and motorcycle also passed Martin and went up the hill after the BMW, but the reporters don’t make this clear.
4. Witness P7, the 41 yo hiker, and two female friends went up the road in a car behind Martin, Mollier, the 4×4, the motorcycle, and the BMW. P7 was intercepted by Martin who was coming back down to call the cops. P7 then “ran” up to the scene, looked around and went back down, possibly following Martin back up the hill. [CST-3] Apparently the females did not go on up. All 4 of them — P7, 2 females, Martin — then went to the cop station, but, apparently, not together.
It is not at all clear what was going on here and the reporters are just hacking this to pieces, particularly Peter Allen writing for the Evening Standard and Daily Mail. Why did P7 not continue to drive to the top? If there are killers running loose over the mountain, why do you want to be running around on foot? Did the women stay in the car while P7 and Martin went back to the scene? If Martin was at the scene with P7, why did P7 claim he thought Zainab was dead when Martin put the girl in the recovery position?
5. No one reports the 4×4 or motorcycle coming back down the hill.
6. The builder, Fillion-Robin, whom I label “P8″ in the table, simply cannot be believed. He says he saw the BMW go up the hill an hour before the victims were found and he saw no other cars all afternoon. This is total bullshit. It contradicts the known fact that the P7 group went up the hill in a car after the BMW, and it contradicts Martin’s testimony that the 4×4 and motorcycle went up the hill. Later P8 changed his testimony and said he did, after all, see the 4×4 and motorcycle go up the hill, but they preceded the BMW, which is not possible, given Martin’s testimony b/c then the BMW would have also had to pass Martin on his ride up the hill, but Martin has not said that. The only conclusion we can come to regarding the builder, P8, is that he is a liar or pathologically confused.
The information to date is that a single gun, a Czech made 7.62mm Skorpion, was the weapon that killed all of the victims. [CST-3] According to Wikipedia, in this bullet size the Skorpion has the option of a 20 round magazine or a 10 round magazine.
The cops seem pretty sure that 25 rounds were fired, but that is only b/c they can only find 25 shells. Any shells lying in the brush could easily have been missed.
Mollier was hit 5 times, Saad 5, each of the women twice, Zainab once — total of 15 hits out of 25 rounds fired. That means 8 rounds were fired without hitting any people. At the close range it is pretty hard to miss targets like that, particularly ones strapped into a car with seat belts only 2 feet away.
In order to fire 25 shots he used either 2x 20-round magazines or 3x 10-round magazines, in either case he had to change magazines and — presuming the magazines were full going up the hill and he emptied them — he fired off a more rounds that the cops found shells, maybe a lot more.
This is the most bizarre fact of all. Martin says the engine was revved up, the wheels were “spinning,” and he could smell burnt rubber. As noted in Post #1, the position of the car, neatly backed into the lay-by is weird and very important. Saad obviously still had his foot on the accelerator when he was killed, and the car was still in reverse b/c the wheels couldn’t be still spinning in forward without the car moving forward out of the lay-by onto the road and beyond to the creek. Almost certainly, this was an automatic transmission, or else the engine would have stalled. But one would think that even an automatic backed up against an embankment would have stalled. The car had at least one flat tire on the rear. [See DM#1 for best shots of the car.]
I believe this tells us how very soon after Saad was shot that Martin came upon the scene. If the killer immediately left the scene on the motorcycle or in the 4×4, why didn’t Martin hear those vehicles? If the killer was lurking in the bushes while Martin and P7 investigated, why didn’t he come back out and finish off Zainab once they left to get the cops?
Under the theory that this was an international hit on Saad b/c he had defense weapons information, etc., one would have to conclude that the reason Zainab wasn’t shot to death was that the killer ran out of ammo. But in that situation he would have killed her by hand to eliminate witness testimony. For the reasons stated in Post #1, that theory is not reasonable.
But with Thaher now in the picture, that international intrigue theory is moved down another notch yet. Let’s guess that Thaher is schizo and was carrying out his previous threats to kill his mother, his role as the girl’s uncle may have overcome his rage or whatever else was driving him to kill the adults. The fact that the girl is alive turns suspicions more to Thaher and a mental illness driven family killing.
Alternatively, casting the speculation net wide and wildly, Mollier may have been the target of a girlfriend’s jealous husband, of his wife’s jealous boyfriend, of his own jealous boyfriend, or any number of sordid possibilities. This is France, after all.