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H1N1 post #4: Shit –> Fan = H1N1 Fall/Winter 2009-2010

Bloged in Viral threats by Gutter Grunt Saturday August 22, 2009 at about 5:05 pm

I’m not going to crunch any numbers in this H1N1 post.  Nope, all verbal.  In fact, I’m not even going to write this post.  I’m going to lift it all from recent US government sources.

Here are excerpts from the CDC and from Homeland Security’s  Water and Wastewater Annex to the Guide for Critical Infrastructure and Key Resources. (“Annex”)  You can download the whole W/W/ Annex here: http://wwn-online.com/Whitepapers/2009/08/Flu-Pandemix-Annex/Asset.aspx

More here . . .

H1N1 post #3: Infection rates and kill rates. Cross your fingers.

Bloged in Viral threats by Gutter Grunt Saturday August 15, 2009 at about 12:54 pm

In my last post, July 25th, I ran a few numbers from the CDC and the UK Ministry of Health and came to the conclusion that the next 6 months or so could see 800,000 US deaths from swine flu. This would be the largest fatal event in US history. The prediction was based on an infection rate of 40% and a kill rate of 0.7%. If either of these numbers is off, the guess is off.

Since then I have been scanning the data-horizon to see if any information is coming to light that would suggest my conclusions are way off. I get data primarily from the European CDC, which gives a daily update of European and world data. http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/Default.aspx


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